This year marks the 129th running of the Boston Marathon - an especially eventful time of the calendar this year with Easter (#HeHasRisen) and 4/20 (#BlazeIt) falling on today - the day before the marathon which is always on President's Day in the great state of Mass.
In this essay I will:
- Make predictions about this year's field (mostly focused on Americans)
- Review Des Linden's training block on Trackster
- Discuss the state of influencers and the marathon industrial complex.
2025 pro field & top 3 predictions
The Boston Marathon is a predictably unpredictable event and almost always gives us a legendary race. The most consistent American finisher in my recent memory is Scott Fauble - who tallied great results progressing from 2:12 in 2018, 2:09:09 in 2019, down to a stellar 2:08:52 in 2022 good for 7th overall.
What I remember about Scott's races is that he was super disciplined in his pacing - Boston's raucous crowd and unique atmosphere seem to make even the most experienced runners oscillate between too fast and too slow - often sticking to a lead pack that's really hot and getting dropped into the dreaded "no man's land" just in time for the Newton Hills - but Scott always kept pacing smooth as can be regardless of what the packs were doing around him.
My prediction for both the men's and women's field is that the winner will go out in a blazing lead pack - resulting in a fast time and borderline course record - but this will leave 1-2 serious contenders in bonk city with multiple DNFs. The sport of distance running is in an interesting place but one thing is for sure - running fast on big stages is more of a priority than ever which is sick.
The key for the Americans is going to be staying consistent like Fauble and potentially sneaking into the top 5 after the carnage from the front pack. I'm worried that Mantz is going to stay with the front pack no matter what and not take advantage of the inevitable fate that Boston's course seems to always draw out. I'm worried about a true Icarus type story.
Rounding out the top of the American field is Clayton Young, CJ Albertson, Zach Panning, Colin Bennie, Brian Shrader, Reed Fischer, and Nathan Martin - all with a non zero chance of executing the pre described race plan and nailing a top 10 spot - all I'm also sure are lowkey gunning for top American and showing that Mantz can be beat.
Men's Field:
- Evans Chebet
- John Korir
- Conner Mantz
Top 10 honorable mention:
- Zach Panning
Women's Field:
- Hellen Obiri
- Sharon Lokedi
- Irene Cheptai
Top 10 honorable mention:
- Keira D’Amato
The women's race is almost always more exciting - but with Hellen Obiri in the field basic statistics ( #mathgenius ) tells us that she will win.
Obiri has run the Boston Marathon twice and won both times. She won in 2023 with a time of 2:21:38 and again in 2024 with a time of 2:22:37.
She is scheduled to run the Boston Marathon again on Monday, April 21, 2025, and is aiming to be the first Kenyan woman to win three consecutive titles (Obiri : Boston Marathon :: Kansas City Chiefs : Super Bowl). Only four women in history have achieved a three-peat at the Boston Marathon, with the last being Fatuma Roba of Ethiopia who won from 1997 to 1999.
With coach Dathan Ritzenhein behind her, I just can't in good faith pick anybody else to break the tape. My money is on a Hopkinton three-peat.
Reviewing Des Linden's Boston marathon training on Trackster
This is Des' Insights page on the Trackster app comparing 01/01/2025-04/20/2025 against the same dates in 2024.
At first glance it appears her block was a little less voluminous compared to 2024's where she finished in 16th place. ( Des has run the Boston Marathon 11 times, winning in 2018 and finishing 2nd by 2 seconds in 2011. )
However, there are some key indicators that Des is ready for an even better year this year - her overall mileage is a touch less, yes, but since Feb the total block has been better and her consistency overall is also improved.
Diving into more stats on Trackster, we can see that Des has run a better "Best Split" for every single distance that Trackster collects! So while the mileage is a touch lower, it seems the quality of her workout sessions and hard days has been better.
Her 2:26 Best Split for the 800m came during a workout just 10 days ago - you can view the 3D GPS for this workout here. I love that she's doing some legit fast, sharp stuff this close to the race.
The 5:06 1 Mile Best Split was achieved during a workout 3 days before the NYC Half Marathon race on March 16 where she ran the 1:11:00 Half Marathon best split - click here to view the 3D GPS for her NYC race and click here to view the 3D GPS for her workout right before - just over 4 weeks out from Boston.
More indication that Des is sharp in a different way this year compared to last.
More fun stuff
Here's a breakdown of training by location since Jan 1:
Her longest run total was 20 miles achieved on March 5 - for less experienced marathoners in my opinion that would be a little low but for Des there's no doubt she's got a great handle on covering the total volume of 26.2 miles - it's about pace, tactics, and consistency at this point.
Damn near nobody in the world knows the Boston Marathon course better than Des and given the Insights that Trackster and her training illustrate I'm thinking we're going to see a top 15 day out of the legendary Linden this time around.
State of the Marathon Industrial Complex
Every time a big and/or major marathon comes around, it seems there are two parallel universes coexisting at the same time.
On one hand we have the pro runner scene - with LetsRun, Citius and the like - reporting on the high level competition. We have dramatic dynamics between Kenyan, American, etc. competitors and some of the best athletes of all time jockeying for faster times, super shoe era records, and big bonuses in the form of contract incentives.
On the other hand we have influencer marketing groups, lead by groups like Cooldown, Endorphins, the Matt Choi's of the world, etc. These influencers do a great job of hyping up the race, spreading good vibes and marketing to the world about running in general and their brand partners in specific. Say what you want about the oft cringe worthy content - the numbers don't lie - influencers are out performing pro runners in every category besides PRs and we can only assume in finances, too.
I love that running is a welcoming sport to all folks and all abilities - it's just interesting to me how there are such two different experiences happening at the same time, in the same place, with the same race distance/event at the heart of it all.
I've done a number of TikTok / Reel type videos myself where I ask hobby joggers to name pro runners and race participants to answer running related trivia and it's always surprising how disconnected the non-pro runners are from the pro field in terms of knowledge and, if I may, reverence.
It’s only a shame if the influencers run amok and compromise the safety/sanctity of the event by overstepping for their own selfish content goals. The sport has enough to deal with in regards to doping and safety as it is.
I hope that the sport of running continues to grow and I hope that fitness/running/etc. continue to become a fun and valued part of social events. I just also hope that we can all do a better job to connect the "normies" to the pros, and vise versa. There's more to be done in this regard. Every race is an opportunity to further this connection, every day and run is a step in the right direction... and the Trackster app's mission is to help as a conduit for both groups to make the most of their mileage.
